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Reliability comparison of vessel trajectory prediction models via Probability of Detection

Rastin, Zahra, Donandt, Kathrin, Söffker, Dirk

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The objective is to assess model performance in diverse traffic complexities and compare the reliability of the approaches. While previous VTP models overlook the specific traffic situation complexity and lack reliability assessments, this research uses a probability of detection analysis to quantify model reliability in varying traffic scenarios, thus going beyond common error distribution analyses. All models are evaluated on test samples categorized according to their traffic situation during the prediction horizon, with performance metrics and reliability estimates obtained for each category. The results of this comprehensive evaluation provide a deeper understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the different prediction approaches, along with their reliability in terms of the prediction horizon lengths for which safe forecasts can be guaranteed. These findings can inform the development of more reliable vessel trajectory prediction approaches, enhancing safety and efficiency in future inland waterways navigation.


Misalignments in AI Perception: Quantitative Findings and Visual Mapping of How Experts and the Public Differ in Expectations and Risks, Benefits, and Value Judgments

Brauner, Philipp, Glawe, Felix, Liehner, Gian Luca, Vervier, Luisa, Ziefle, Martina

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming diverse societal domains, raising critical questions about its risks and benefits and the misalignments between public expectations and academic visions. This study examines how the general public (N=1110) -- people using or being affected by AI -- and academic AI experts (N=119) -- people shaping AI development -- perceive AI's capabilities and impact across 71 scenarios, including sustainability, healthcare, job performance, societal divides, art, and warfare. Participants evaluated each scenario on four dimensions: expected probability, perceived risk and benefit, and overall sentiment (or value). The findings reveal significant quantitative differences: experts anticipate higher probabilities, perceive lower risks, report greater utility, and express more favorable sentiment toward AI compared to the non-experts. Notably, risk-benefit tradeoffs differ: the public assigns risk half the weight of benefits, while experts assign it only a third. Visual maps of these evaluations highlight areas of convergence and divergence, identifying potential sources of public concern. These insights offer actionable guidance for researchers and policymakers to align AI development with societal values, fostering public trust and informed governance.


Norm of Mean Contextualized Embeddings Determines their Variance

Yamagiwa, Hiroaki, Shimodaira, Hidetoshi

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Contextualized embeddings vary by context, even for the same token, and form a distribution in the embedding space. To analyze this distribution, we focus on the norm of the mean embedding and the variance of the embeddings. In this study, we first demonstrate that these values follow the well-known formula for variance in statistics and provide an efficient sequential computation method. Then, by observing embeddings from intermediate layers of several Transformer models, we found a strong trade-off relationship between the norm and the variance: as the mean embedding becomes closer to the origin, the variance increases. This trade-off is likely influenced by the layer normalization mechanism used in Transformer models. Furthermore, when the sets of token embeddings are treated as clusters, we show that the variance of the entire embedding set can theoretically be decomposed into the within-cluster variance and the between-cluster variance. We found experimentally that as the layers of Transformer models deepen, the embeddings move farther from the origin, the between-cluster variance relatively decreases, and the within-cluster variance relatively increases. These results are consistent with existing studies on the anisotropy of the embedding spaces across layers.


Unboxing Occupational Bias: Grounded Debiasing of LLMs with U.S. Labor Data

Gorti, Atmika, Gaur, Manas, Chadha, Aman

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to inheriting and amplifying societal biases embedded within their training data, potentially reinforcing harmful stereotypes related to gender, occupation, and other sensitive categories. This issue becomes particularly problematic as biased LLMs can have far-reaching consequences, leading to unfair practices and exacerbating social inequalities across various domains, such as recruitment, online content moderation, or even the criminal justice system. Although prior research has focused on detecting bias in LLMs using specialized datasets designed to highlight intrinsic biases, there has been a notable lack of investigation into how these findings correlate with authoritative datasets, such as those from the U.S. National Bureau of Labor Statistics (NBLS). To address this gap, we conduct empirical research that evaluates LLMs in a ``bias-out-of-the-box" setting, analyzing how the generated outputs compare with the distributions found in NBLS data. Furthermore, we propose a straightforward yet effective debiasing mechanism that directly incorporates NBLS instances to mitigate bias within LLMs. Our study spans seven different LLMs, including instructable, base, and mixture-of-expert models, and reveals significant levels of bias that are often overlooked by existing bias detection techniques. Importantly, our debiasing method, which does not rely on external datasets, demonstrates a substantial reduction in bias scores, highlighting the efficacy of our approach in creating fairer and more reliable LLMs.


Different Algorithms (Might) Uncover Different Patterns: A Brain-Age Prediction Case Study

Ettling, Tobias, Saba-Sadiya, Sari, Roig, Gemma

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning is a rapidly evolving field with a wide range of applications, including biological signal analysis, where novel algorithms often improve the state-of-the-art. However, robustness to algorithmic variability - measured by different algorithms, consistently uncovering similar findings - is seldom explored. In this paper we investigate whether established hypotheses in brain-age prediction from EEG research validate across algorithms. First, we surveyed literature and identified various features known to be informative for brain-age prediction. We employed diverse feature extraction techniques, processing steps, and models, and utilized the interpretative power of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values to align our findings with the existing research in the field. Few of our models achieved state-of-the-art performance on the specific data-set we utilized. Moreover, analysis demonstrated that while most models do uncover similar patterns in the EEG signals, some variability could still be observed. Finally, a few prominent findings could only be validated using specific models. We conclude by suggesting remedies to the potential implications of this lack of robustness to model variability.


Linear Regression Deep Understanding

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In data science, machine learning algorithms are used to automate a system. In practice, there are mainly two types of problems -- i. Supervised, and ii. In the supervised problem, the training dataset is labelled. That means the algorithm has a target value. The supervised learning algorithm tries to predict the values like target values and optimizes its parameters accordingly.


Top 10 Machine Learning Algorithms for Beginners to Dive Into

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Each machine learning algorithm handles one specific problem, and this way beginners can dive into one of these to figure out solutions, one at a time. Here is a compilation of the top machine learning algorithms that are frequently used in all machine learning fields. Now, you can practice ML algorithms here. Forming relationships between two variables is almost the starting point of a model, and linear regression in machine learning achieves that. The relationship between the dependent and independent variables is established by aligning them on a regression line.


R-ALGO Linear Regression & Machine Learning Algorithm

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Algorithms used in the process of machine learning have a number of different functions. They are often used to map data, make sense of large quantities of data, and predict developments over time. There are few algorithms which can conceivably perform all three tasks. One of these is linear regression. This algorithm was originally developed for statistical processing the 19th century.


5 Regression Metrics Explained in Just 5mins

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Originally published on Towards AI the World's Leading AI and Technology News and Media Company. If you are building an AI-related product or service, we invite you to consider becoming an AI sponsor. At Towards AI, we help scale AI and technology startups. Let us help you unleash your technology to the masses. If you want to know the answers to the above questions then you are in the right place….


5 Most Used Machine Learning Algorithms in Python

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Machine learning is the concept of programming the machine in such a way that it learns from its experiences and different examples, without being programmed explicitly. It is an application of AI that allows machines to learn on their own. Machine learning algorithms are a combination of math and logic that adjust themselves to perform more progressively once the input data varies. Being a general-purpose, easy to learn and understand language, Python can be used for a large variety of development tasks. It is capable of doing a number of machine learning tasks, which is why most algorithms are written in Python.